Since 2019, the number of active rigs producing oil in the United States has continued to decline. The latest data on the number of active rigs from Baker Hughes in the United States showed 684 units, a value in line with the level of April 13, 2017.

This was very positive data for the oil market, especially after the EIA data on oil reserves in the United States, which for the second week in a row show crude oil reserves of 5.7 and 7.9 million barrels. The reason for optimism in the oil market is not only the decline in active drilling rigs in the United States, but also the total number of drilling rigs in the United States from Baker Hughes (U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count). Where the latter value has a noticeably more rapid decline. This is due to the fading of the shale boom in the United States and limited liquidity for exploration and development of new deposits.

We should also highlight the dynamics of gas installations in the United States, which remained at the same level, as well as the restrained reserves of gasoline and distillates. This prompts the idea of maintaining the level of consumption, which could increase in seasonality.

Major brands of crude reacted very cautiously to the data from the United States. Since, to a greater extent, the dynamics of oil prices depends on the trade situation between the United States and China.

Technically, both oil grades maintain the October uptrend, which as a result may be limited by general overbought and attempts to retrace from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, from the high on September 16 to the low on October 3. For Brent, this level is $ 63 per barrel, for WTI - $ 57 per barrel. This suggests the possibility of a correction, which, in turn, will be limited by the lower border of the October and November uptrend.