What currency can be a possible alternative to the dollar?
If we try to look for potential dollar receivers on the world stage, we will find something like this list:
- Danish krone
- Swedish krona
- Canadian dollar
- Australian dollar;
- Swiss frank;
- Euro Euro
Now we will remove from this list the currencies whose chances of world domination tend to zero, due to the insignificance of their economies and other factors, namely the Danish and Swedish kronas, the Canadian and Australian dollars, pounds, francs.
To the remaining euros and Chinese yuan, we add the existing cryptocurrencies and quasi-currencies (like SDR). We will not consider any theoretical currencies like the BRICS national currency or the pan-Asian currency, since it is possible to equate the intergalactic currency in this way.
So the list of potential threats to the dollar looks like this:
- Euro Euro
- quasi currency.
Let's start in turn.
At the moment, the euro has the greatest chances, since for 2016 already 22% + percent of foreign exchange reserves are stored in euros, and if we add here the fact that Eurozone GDP is comparable to US GDP, then dominance may be in jeopardy. Only disunity within the union can interfere, and in particular, the precedent for Britain to leave the EU, which can serve as a bad example for other countries.
Many prophesy yuan future world domination. Often used the argument saying "the US economy is bloated, and China produces," believe me, the Chinese economy is still that bubble. For years, China, thanks to the tremendous growth rate of the construction and industrial sectors, has been warming up its economy, and now it all boils down to the fact that there are millionaire cities without people, plants without machine tools, millions of cubic meters of cement and steel lie in the ground, here you have an economic miracle. Separately, it is worth noting the closed financial system of China and the administrative economy, no one will trust their savings to such a regime, since their security will become a whim of the current government.
Perhaps one of the most promising options. I’m not talking about bitcoin and some other currency, because now it’s only the birth process, but in the future it is quite likely that a centralized world cryptocurrency will be created, the dollar will have no fun there. Current cryptocurrencies have no chance of world domination, since they are in the hands of individuals and legal entities, and why should the world or state buy a means of payment from the people if it is possible to create a new one?
Quasi-currency is an alternative to money, a kind of equivalent. Something similar already exists and is called SDR (Special Drawing Rights, Special Drawing Rights) - the IMF’s artificial means of payment, exists only in electronic form, and is used for settlements between the IMF and its members. If this kind of currency, with an independent emission center, is implemented for the global economy, then we can forget about savings in the dollar or any other currency.
I would like to note that it’s too early to talk about some kind of shift, because so far there is such a thing as “petrodollar” the world economy has depended and will depend on the dollar. And those who claim that we pay tribute to the USA, etc., should think what will happen if the dollar takes the yuan or the euro? Will we pay tribute to China or Europe? The amount does not change from a change in the terms of the terms, as we paid, we will, we just change the borrower.